DEMO · WOUND-SPEND DIAGNOSTIC
The wound-spend diagnostic · your own 40x

See your book's wound exposure. Starting with the limbs at risk.

Enter a few facts about your covered population. We model the chronic-wound and skin-substitute exposure sitting inside it — and, first, the limbs your members could lose this year if the wound is left unmanaged. Every assumption is shown and cited. Change any of them.

A modeled estimate from your inputs, not a quote. The human number leads. The dollars come last.

Your book

Step 1 · inputs

Three facts about your covered population. Defaults are placeholders — replace them with yours.

Payer type — sets prevalence & how managed the spend already is

Blank means we model it from prevalence and application rates below. Enter a figure to anchor the estimate to your actuals.

Fig. 1 · what's at stake Modeled estimate · from your inputs

In a book like yours, roughly 410 members could face a major amputation this year — if the wound is left unmanaged.

410limbs at risk per year

Modeled from 12,500 members with a diabetic foot ulcer in your book, at the amputation rate we show below. These are people, not line items — and the rate is not evenly distributed.

Five years after a major diabetic-foot amputation, more than half of patients are gone. That mortality is worse than breast, prostate, and colorectal cancer and the all-cancer average.6 This is why the limb leads — the limb is the life.

Fig. 2 · your modeled exposure Estimate · assumptions shown below

Your own wound & skin-substitute exposure

The skin substitute is the trigger, not the prize — but it's the loudest, fastest-running line. Here is the slice of it that your book is carrying, modeled from the assumptions below.

$14.3M
modeled annual skin-substitute exposure in your book
$40.0M
modeled total chronic-wound burden (the episode, not the graft)
$8.6M
share of skin-sub spend the withdrawn LCDs no longer guard4
The national run-up was ~40x — $256M to over $10B in five years while patients only roughly doubled.1 CMS capped the price at $127.14/cm² from Jan 1, 2026, then withdrew the coverage rules nine days earlier.24 The dollars above are yours, modeled.
SCALED TO YOUR BOOK
Fig. 3 · what a managed wound episode changes

Right care up. Wasteful grafts down. Limbs kept.

A managed wound benefit adds the care that preserves a limb and removes the care that only ran up the bill. These are the directional levers — the outcomes move first; the savings are the consequence, stated last.

Care up

Home-nurse monitoring — the Tuesday visit that catches the infection before it reaches bone. The actual mechanism of keeping a limb.

Care up

The vascular gate, offloading, the right antibiotic — no graft on a limb with no blood supply; a DFU under pressure or on a high A1c does not close.

Waste down

Over-grafting — which product, which wound, how many applications, how large a graft. The coverage side CMS left unguarded.

Waste down

Avoidable amputations, ED visits, and admissions — the bulk of the real burden, stepped down as the wound closes at home.

Closure goes up. Limbs are kept. And the spend you saw above is the line that moves last — the quiet consequence of getting the care right, never the headline.

The assumptions behind these numbers

Every figure above is modeled from your inputs and the benchmarks below. Each is labeled and cited. Adjust any of them and the results recompute live — this is your model, not ours.

Chronic-wound prevalence
~15% in Medicare-age populations; lower in younger commercial books. Set by payer type; adjustable. [Nussbaum 2018]8
5.0%
Diabetic foot ulcer subset
Share of chronic-wound members whose wound is a DFU — the one condition KEEP wedges on, and the limb-threatening one.
34%
Major amputation rate (DFU)
Annual major-amputation rate among DFU members if the wound is unmanaged. The 2–4x racial disparity is not in this average. [Durazzo 2011]7
3.3%
Skin-substitute application rate
Share of DFU members receiving advanced skin-substitute (CTP) therapy in a year — the line that ran ~40x nationally. [OIG 2025]1
28%
Skin-substitute cost per treated member
Modeled annual graft cost per treated DFU member. Anchored to the new flat rate of $127.14/cm² across typical applications and graft sizes. [CMS-1832-F]2
$12,000
Episode-to-graft multiple
Total wound burden (visits, ED, surgery, amputations) runs several times the graft line. We hold this at the canon ratio; the graft is a slice of the dollar. [Nussbaum 2018]8
2.8x
Unguarded coverage share
Share of skin-sub spend exposed to over-utilization now that the seven MAC LCDs are withdrawn (Dec 24, 2025) — which product, indication, applications, graft size. [CMS LCD withdrawal]4
60%

There is no public dataset sizing non-FFS skin-substitute spend, so any commercial or Medicaid figure here is modeled — prevalence by payer × application rate × per-member cost — and presented as an estimate, never as a published fact.8

The first meeting

This chart books the meeting.

The full diagnostic runs your actual claims feed against the closure registry and returns a plan-specific limb-preservation and exposure read. It needs no network to produce — only a conversation.

We open with limb preservation. We close with limbs kept. The savings are real, and they come last.